Fourth & Value alerts New edges when lines open, and line moves through 3 or 7 https://davischamann-alt.github.io/fourth-and-value/alerts.xml 2026-11-01T23:22:02Z tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:key:401858514:2026-11-01T23:21Z Line onto 7: Oregon @ Ohio State 2026-11-01T23:22:02Z The line moved from Ohio State -7.5 to Ohio State -7, onto 7, away from the model's pick (Ohio State). Sat Nov 7, 12:00 AM ET. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:key:401864535:2026-11-01T23:21Z Line onto 7: Wyoming @ UNLV 2026-11-01T23:22:02Z The line moved from UNLV -7.5 to UNLV -7, onto 7, away from the model's pick (UNLV). Sat Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:pick:401869936 Lean: Arkansas State -14.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z UL Monroe @ Arkansas State, Sat Nov 7, 3:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes Arkansas State -14.5, a 2.5-point edge, logged when the line first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:pick:401856851 Lean: Houston -10.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Cincinnati @ Houston, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes Houston -10.5, a 1.6-point edge, logged when the line first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:pick:401869951 Lean: Georgia Southern -9.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Marshall @ Georgia Southern, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes Georgia Southern -9.5, a 1.9-point edge, logged when the line first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:pick:401862821 Check the news: North Texas -16.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Rice @ North Texas, Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes North Texas -16.5, a 1.9-point edge, logged when the line first appeared. QB change: Gael Ochoa led Rice's passing in the last game; Jacurri Brown led it in 7 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Jacurri Brown's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:pick:401856742 Check the news: Mississippi State -2.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State, Sat Nov 7, 4:15 PM ET. Market-anchored takes Mississippi State -2.5, a 3.2-point edge, logged when the line first appeared. QB change: AJ Swann led Mississippi State's passing in the last game; Kamario Taylor led it in 5 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Kamario Taylor's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:pick:401864535 Lean: UNLV -7.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Wyoming @ UNLV, Sat Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes UNLV -7.5, a 1.7-point edge, logged when the line first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401869945 Check the news: Over 45.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Old Dominion @ Coastal Carolina, Sat Nov 7, 1:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 45.5 (projects 47.4), a 1.9-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: Jaxon Potter led Old Dominion's passing in the last 2 games; Quinn Henicle led it in 5 of 9 games. The ratings mostly reflect Quinn Henicle's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401858516 Check the news: Over 43.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Penn State @ Washington, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 43.5 (projects 46.4), a 2.9-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: Elijah Brown led Washington's passing in the last 3 games; Demond Williams Jr. led it in 5 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Demond Williams Jr.'s games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401862819 Check the news: Over 49.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Charlotte @ UAB, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 49.5 (projects 51.2), a 1.7-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: Conner Harrell led Charlotte's passing in the last 3 games; Cole Gonzales led it in 5 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Cole Gonzales's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401856850 Check the news: Over 48.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z UCF @ Kansas, Sat Nov 7, 3:45 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 48.5 (projects 50.7), a 2.2-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: Cole Ballard led Kansas's passing in the last game; Isaiah Marshall led it in 7 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Isaiah Marshall's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401871098 Check the news: Over 45.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Louisiana Tech @ Troy, Sat Nov 7, 4:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 45.5 (projects 48.0), a 2.5-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: Tucker Kilcrease led Troy's passing in the last game; Goose Crowder led it in 7 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Goose Crowder's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401856742 Check the news: Over 47.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Vanderbilt @ Mississippi State, Sat Nov 7, 4:15 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 47.5 (projects 49.8), a 2.3-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: AJ Swann led Mississippi State's passing in the last game; Kamario Taylor led it in 5 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Kamario Taylor's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401858517 Check the news: Over 46.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Rutgers @ Wisconsin, Sat Nov 7, 4:15 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 46.5 (projects 49.0), a 2.5-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: AJ Surace led Rutgers's passing in the last 2 games; Dylan Lonergan led it in 5 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Dylan Lonergan's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401856852 Check the news: Over 49.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Colorado @ Arizona State, Sat Nov 7, 7:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 49.5 (projects 51.4), a 1.9-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: Jake Fette led Arizona State's passing in the last game; Cutter Boley led it in 5 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Cutter Boley's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401870795 Lean: Over 47.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Liberty @ New Mexico State, Sat Nov 7, 8:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 47.5 (projects 49.1), a 1.6-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401860913 Check the news: Over 41.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Fresno State @ Utah State, Sat Nov 7, 9:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 41.5 (projects 43.8), a 2.3-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: McCae Hillstead led Utah State's passing in the last game; Grady Brosterhous led it in 6 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Grady Brosterhous's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401860912 Lean: Under 67.5 2026-11-01T20:34:49Z Texas State @ Oregon State, Sat Nov 7, 10:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the under 67.5 (projects 65.8), a 1.7-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401866457 Lean: Over 51.5 2026-11-01T06:17:55Z Toledo @ Sacramento State, Wed Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 51.5 (projects 53.2), a 1.7-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401862817 Lean: Under 71.5 2026-11-01T06:17:55Z UTSA @ Florida Atlantic, Thu Nov 5, 7:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the under 71.5 (projects 68.7), a 2.8-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401862818 Check the news: Over 45.5 2026-11-01T06:17:55Z South Florida @ East Carolina, Fri Nov 6, 7:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 45.5 (projects 47.3), a 1.8-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: Luke Kromenhoek led South Florida's passing in the last game; Michael Van Buren Jr. led it in 7 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Michael Van Buren Jr.'s games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401858510 Lean: Over 48.5 2026-11-01T06:17:55Z Nebraska @ Illinois, Fri Nov 6, 8:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 48.5 (projects 50.2), a 1.7-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401864533 Check the news: Over 43.5 2026-11-01T06:17:55Z New Mexico @ Nevada, Fri Nov 6, 9:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 43.5 (projects 46.3), a 2.8-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: AJ Bianco led Nevada's passing in the last game; Carter Jones led it in 4 of 8 games. The ratings mostly reflect Carter Jones's games. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-11-01:total:401856855 Lean: Over 44.5 2026-11-01T06:17:55Z TCU @ Arizona, Fri Nov 6, 10:15 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 44.5 (projects 46.2), a 1.8-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-10-31:pick:401866455 Lean: Massachusetts -4.5 2026-10-31T23:26:41Z Ball State @ Massachusetts, Wed Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes Massachusetts -4.5, a 1.7-point edge, logged when the line first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-10-31:total:401866453 Lean: Over 49.5 2026-10-31T23:26:41Z Ohio @ Akron, Tue Nov 3, 7:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 49.5 (projects 51.3), a 1.8-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-10-31:total:401866454 Lean: Over 45.5 2026-10-31T23:26:41Z Buffalo @ Miami (OH), Tue Nov 3, 8:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 45.5 (projects 48.0), a 2.5-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-10-31:total:401866455 Lean: Over 48.5 2026-10-31T23:26:41Z Ball State @ Massachusetts, Wed Nov 4, 7:00 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 48.5 (projects 50.3), a 1.8-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. tag:fourth-and-value,2026-10-31:total:401866456 Check the news: Over 46.5 2026-10-31T23:26:41Z Central Michigan @ Eastern Michigan, Wed Nov 4, 7:30 PM ET. Market-anchored takes the over 46.5 (projects 48.1), a 1.6-point edge, logged when the total first appeared. QB change: Brogan McCaughey led Eastern Michigan's passing in the last game; Noah Kim led it in 8 of 9 games. The ratings mostly reflect Noah Kim's games.